Bayern slips by Fiorentina on away goals

Soccer Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Florence, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arjen Robben's brilliant goal in the 65th minute capped a stretch of four combined goals in 11 minutes, as Bayern Munich slipped into the quarterfinals of the Champions League despite a 3-2 defeat at Fiorentina on Tuesday.

Stevan Jovetic scored two goals and Juan Vargas added one to put Fiorentina in position to advance to the last eight on three occasions, but Mark van Bommel scored Bayern's first and Robben added the deciding away goal.

Bayern won the first leg 2-1 in Munich, and although the final aggregate ended 4-4, advanced because of its two away goals at Stadio Artemio Franchi.

Arsenal joined Bayern in the quarterfinals with a 5-0 win over FC Porto at the Emirates to overcome a first-leg deficit and advance on aggregate 6-2.

Fiorentina didn't look like a club that had lost seven of its last nine in all competitions, and in the process ended Bayern's 18-game unbeaten streak in all events but still failed to advance.

Fiorentina's Vargas decided to try and test Bayern goalie Hans-Jorg Butt from 35 yards on the first chance for either side, but his free kick just cleared the bar and dropped into the top of the net with the goal covered.

Vargas delivered on his next chance in the 27th when he battled Bayern central defender Daniel van Buyten to win a rebound on the left edge of the six-yard box and fired inside the far post from a tight angle.

Bastian Schweinsteiger helped create the first of two good chances for Bayern when he was able to head the ball through traffic to Robben on the right side of the area. Robben only had Fiorentina goalie Sebastien Frey to beat, but the French star made a great save to tip the ball wide in the 34th.

Miroslav Klose, who replaced an injured Mario Gomez in the 30th minute, had the second shot just seconds before half when he ran onto a cross from Thomas Muller but, despite getting under the ball, headed over from 10 yards.

Fiorentina was handed another great chance five minutes into the second half, but Butt made his biggest save of the match. Alberto Gilardino ran onto a ball on the top of the six that magically rolled by two Bayern defenders but didn't finish from just yards out as Butt deflected the ball wide.

Jovetic didn't waste Fiorentina's next chance, finishing off a back heel from Gilardino to pick out the bottom corner in the 54th to open the scoring streak that included two goals for each club.

Van Bommel unleashed a world-class strike from 20 yards that skimmed just off the inside the left post in the 60th, putting the series level at three goals apiece and even on away goals at one apiece. Jovetic followed in the 64th off another Gilardino assist to hand his side the series lead once again, only to watch Robben equalize shortly after the restart.

Robben delivered another world-class strike just over a minute later, when he sent a left-footed shot from 28 yards over the outstretched arms of a diving Frey and into the upper-left corner to send Bayern through to the final eight for the second straight season.

Fiorentina has not advanced to the last eight since the 1969-70 European event when it lost to Celtic in the quarterfinals.

In London, Nicklas Bendtner scored a hat trick as Arsenal rolled into the last eight over Porto.

Bendtner scored his first two goals in the ninth and 25 minutes, and after two goals from Samir Nasri and Emmanuel Eboue in the second half, finished his hat trick from the penalty spot in extra time.

Arsenal, which dropped the first leg in Portugal 2-1, advanced despite playing without Cesc Fabregas. The Gunners are in the last eight for the third time in a row, and for the fourth time in the last five tournaments.

Porto was eliminated in the knockout stage by and English club for the third time in the last four tournaments.

On Wednesday, Real Madrid will try to overcome a 1-0 defeat in the first leg when Lyon visits the Bernabeu, and Manchester United will try to hold onto its 3-2 edge when AC Milan visits Old Trafford.

Inter Milan visits Chelsea, CSKA visits Sevilla, Stuttgart visits Barcelona, and Olympiacos visits Bordeaux next week to wrap up the Round of 16.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.